Let's Talk Sense

Sunday, August 22, 2004
Volume XXIX, No. 6
Roswell, New Mexico
Readership this date: 24,125

In this issue...

Albuquerque Journal Says Fraud Not Good Idea
Democrats Say: But We've Always Done it that Way

The Bernalillo County Clerk said there are 3,000 fraudulent voter registrations -- and that number grows by hundreds every day. Channel 13 reported people registered at vacant lots, parking garages and strip malls. The US Attorney is investigating.

Who is to blame? Their names are right there on the forged, bogus voter registration cards in the space showing who helped "assist" the "applicant." They work for ACORN and other Democrat Party shells and allied organizations---financed by millions of dollars from people like George Soros and Moveon.org.

So what does the Democrat Party chairman say? Does he come out against fraud? Does he even admit that the matter needs to be investigated? No. He says that following state law is "racist."

Democrats continue ferociously in their opposition to ballot access by other parties in New Mexico and elsewhere. It has become clear that fraudulent voting is the only voting supported by John Wertheim and his Democrat Party of New Mexico ---the only signature petitions they want gathered are those without actual signatures, addresses, or any kind of identification. And bonuses go to registrations for 15-year olds and younger---that way they get to have longer careers as fraudulent voters---especially if they are shown to live in a vacant lot.

Wertheim, an Anglo, attacked the lawsuit filed by six Latinos -- including a Democrat and a Green -- by lamely repeating the Democrat mantra that requiring ID abuses minorities. (That in itself is a statement betraying incredibly stupid and apparently unconscious racism: i.e. Wertheim is implying that minorities -- Hispanics especially -- are uniquely incapable of producing identification.) Wertheim in essence is saying he is automatically assuming minorities to be tied up in illegal activities and therefore simply can't identify themselves. This of course is nothing short of outrageous. Unfortunately, there is no other explanation for his repeated, mindless charges.

Then comes the six Latinos filing suit---against the likes of Wertheim--because they want their votes to count. And they don't want 15 year-olds "living" in vacant lots to determine who their elected representatives are. They know there is no reason why a Latino cannot produce an ID, and to say otherwise is rank racism---used uniquely by Wertheim and his Democrat organizations to provide cover for massive fraud in voter registration, and (they hope) a massive turnout of fake votes on election day.

Now the Albuquerque Journal is on to their act. In a courageous editorial Sunday, the Journal risked the wrath of Governor Richardson, the Secretary of State and other Democrat authorities by telling the truth about voter ID. The Journal posed the cogent question of the moment:

Minorities "...stand in line at the video shop, the grocery store, the airport or anywhere minorities produce identification just like anybody else who wants to buy something or go somewhere...it's just not a problem in the commercial arena."

"But walk across the street from shop to polling place and it becomes onerous."

We would say, "You go from Blockbuster Video to the polling place and suddenly you can't pull out a driver's license?"

The bottom line is that thinking people are starting to listen to the words the "pro-fraud" forces are actually using to justify their schemes. And the words don't make any sense.


November Outlook: Not Great, for Now

We have been asked a number of times over the last couple of months how things are looking. We begin to do our predictive models in mid-September of presidential years, and complete them one region at a time over about six weeks. Four years ago, our final analysis showed a final Electoral College result of Bush 282 Gore 256. We missed the outcomes in 3 states, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and New Mexico.

Almost no one -- pundit, analyst or whatever -- will actually take a documentable position predicting or projecting an outcome of a presidential election, or almost any other for that matter. Some in 2000 did. Here are their results:

Analyst Bush Gore result
Let's Talk Sense... 282 256 missed outcome in 3 states
RealClearPolitics 446 92 missed outcome in 20 states
Rasmussen 330 208 missed outcome in 8 states
Gallup 322 216 missed outcome in 9 states
Zogby 311 227 missed outcome in 10 states
Battleground 316 222 missed outcome in 11 states
Mullings 297 241 missed outcome in 9 states
Bush-Cheney 320 218 missed an unknown number of states

How do things look this year -- preliminarily, without calculating any turnout indicators, candidate imprint models, or completing any of the formulas?

Not great. Not terrible. As we said in January, this election continues to remind us, more than any other historical model, of the 1864 Presidential Election. That may change, or in fact the dynamics may change just the way they did in 1864, but right now we stand by that analysis. The bad news for the Republicans is that in August 1864, President Lincoln was a sure loser. The good news for them is that the election is still held in November.

We are certainly far from saying that President Bush is going to lose. After all, in September 1864, Atlanta fell, Sherman began his famous march to the sea within a few weeks, and by November it was clear that the war was going to be won. Lincoln prevailed over George B. McClellan, 55-45, although a few thousand votes in key states could have swung the race to the Democrat nominee----and that was with victory clearly in sight.

It is clear to us that the War on Terror is being won. President Bush however, is up against a relentless media ---91% of whose membership strongly supports John Kerry -- and getting out the real story on the War on Terror is a tremendous challenge.

There is little doubt that if we had had television and radio in the 1860s that war would have been lost and we would be a divided country now. So, relatively speaking,George W. Bush is in a better situation electorally than Abraham Lincoln. Despite the steady drumbeat of false analysis by the media, Bush is neck and neck with Kerry in the relatively meaningless national polls --- and within reasonable striking distance in the dozen battleground states where the election will actually be decided.

We remain guardedly optimistic. If the Republicans can register 2,000,000 new legal voters to offset the 3,000,000 fraudulent voter registration "forms" (as opposed to actual human beings) being turned in by the Democrats and their allies, then we will be very optimistic. Democrats are clearly planning to "vote the forms" ---nationwide, or wherever they can get election supervisors to not follow the law --- and they could easily tip the outcome in key states.


Anchor-gate: Ethics Flap Mars Border Conference

We must give credit where credit is due. Kudos to both the Albuquerque Tribune and the Albuquerque Journal for uncovering and analyzing the incredible conduct of Albuquerque TV anchors at the recent Border Governors' Conference in Santa Fe. Shea Andersen of the Tribune broke the story on August 11:

"Say you need a smashing introduction for your political speech. Who can you call? Apparently you call three Albuquerque TV news reporters. At this year's Border Governors Conference, Gov. Bill Richardson got one of the most glowing introductions he's ever received.

Monica Armenta, the longtime morning anchorwoman for KOB-Channel 4 bestowed the honors. Armenta was followed at the podium, at other times, by KOB anchorman Nelson Martinez and KOAT-Channel 7 anchorwoman Cynthia Izaguirre.

"Gov. Richardson has done more for New Mexico in two legislative sessions than any previous governor accomplished in decades," Armenta said in an introduction Monday.

She noted Richardson

"cut personal income taxes and capital gains taxes nearly in half"

and said Richardson has

"led New Mexico to one of the most dramatic economic turnarounds in U.S. history."

and last but not least, Armenta said Richardson:

"successfully and effectively represented the Democratic Party, New Mexico and the border region as the 2004 chair of the Democratic National Convention in Boston."

After the applause died down, Richardson returned the favor, calling Armenta "the Katie Couric of New Mexico."

Richardson...Spokesman Paul Shipley said the anchors did not get paid and their remarks were written by the governor's staff. [emphasis added]

"They're well-known, high-profile anchors, and they were willing to do it," Shipley said. "We sincerely appreciate it. They did a great job." Mike Burgess, KOB station manager, said his outlet welcomes the publicity his station gets from such appearances, but aims to keep its news broadcasts neutral... "Whatever the political leanings of our reporters, it damn sure doesn't come out on the air."

Right. Well on to the follow up article by Leanne Potts of the Journal:

TV Journalists Crossed the Line, Ethics Expert Says

In an ideal world, journalists are unbiased chroniclers of the news who give favor to no side. So when Albuquerque TV anchorwoman Monica Armenta took the podium at the Border Governors Conference earlier this week and told the crowd that Gov. Bill Richardson had "done more for New Mexico in two regular legislative sessions than any previous governor accomplished in decades," some pundits and reporters questioned whether her effusive introduction had violated journalism's rule of impartiality.

Yes, Armenta's comments crossed the line, said an expert in media ethics.

"It is a huge conflict of interest," said Kelly McBride, who teaches ethical decision-making to professional journalists around the country at the Florida-based PoynterInstitute. "Clearly, the governor of a state is someone on whom a journalist should keep a critical eye. If the public sees this introduction, they're going to wonder where the biases are on future reporting, and if the governor expects favorable treatment from the anchors in future coverage."

Two other Albuquerque news anchors also acted as emcees during the two-day event... KOB-TV news anchor Nelson Martinez and KOAT-TV anchorwoman Cynthia Izaguirre... All three journalists were provided with a 16-page script written by Paul Shipley, a spokesman for the Governor's Office and a former news director at KOAT-TV, Channel 7.

Armenta's remarks appeared to have come directly from the script, which also called for the newswoman to refer to Richardson as "my governor," and to say he had "led New Mexico to one of the most dramatic economic turnarounds in U.S. history." Izaguirre and Martinez were given scripts for shorter and far less rhapsodic introductions of Richardson...

But McBride said all three news anchors damaged their credibility by making any introductions at all, particularly from a script provided by the Governor's Office.

"You're compromising your independence as a journalist letting someone else write the words you speak," she said. KOAT news director Sue Stephens defended Izaguirre's actions. "Cynthia told me she didn't follow the script, she spoke off the cuff," Stephens said. Stephens also said Izaguirre's appearance at the event was not a conflict of interest. "It was not a political campaign event. It was governors talking about border issues and water issues. The governor is not up for re-election."

KOB station manager Mike Burgess said his anchors did no wrong. "I don't see it as being a conflict in their neutrality," he says. "(Armenta) said nice things about the governor in front of other governors." But he said he wished he had looked at the script before journalists from his station read it in public. "I would have checked the script for the impression of favoritism. If there is anyone to blame, it's me."

Shipley said he asked the journalists to host the event because all three were familiar with Spanish and could pronounce the names of the Mexican officials they were introducing. Plus, Shipley said, he wanted to add some flash to the event— which already had a high glamour factor thanks to the attendance of California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. "People like to see news anchors," Shipley said. "They're celebrities in their own right."

McBride wondered if asking journalists to emcee the event was a strategy intended to ingratiate Richardson with the state's media. "You can't think that it's unintentional. It's quite brilliant on [Richardson's] part," she said. "Rather than going toe to toe with them, he brings them into the fold in little and big ways.

Unbelievable. But true. In New Mexico.


Feedback: Some are Happy, Some are Steamed

Response to LTS...(8-12-04)

Ballot Access

Take me off your mailing list! And by the way, it's
the Democratic Party, not the Democrat party (sic)
which is the name your guy Newt gave it because
Democratic sounded too, well..., democratic.

William D. Teel

LTS... responds:

Dear Mr. Teel:

You are removed. However before we go, one minor correction: Mr. Gingrich did not give the name "Democrat" to your party. It has been referred to by that name by non-members for well over a century.

You did correctly surmise the reason: that there is nothing particularly "democratic" about the Democratic Party. The situation at hand -- trying to block ballot access for others -- being only the latest example of egregiously un-democratic conduct.

"Democratic" however it must be conceded, is something of an improvement over its self-styled name of choice during the 19th Century when it called itself "The Democracy" while promoting slavery, inventing the Ku Klux Klan as its armed auxiliary, instituting Jim Crow laws and segregation. This moniker lasted well into the 20th Century, even as the party was voting to support the KKK (at its 1924 convention) and opposing Republican Civil Rights bills until its conversion---at least by a bare majority of its congressional representation---in 1964.

We are grateful that today, the Democrats are not brazen enough to lynch the Nader petition gatherers----something they would not have hesitated to do just as recently as fifty years ago.


Let's Talk Sense...


Great Moments in Democrat History

The Democratic National Convention, meeting in Chicago in July, 1884 to nominate Grover Cleveland for president, adopted its platform, including this

Chinese Immigration

"We do not sanction the importation of foreign labor, or the admission of servile races, unfitted by habits, training, religion, or kindred, for absorption into the great body of our people, or for the citizenship which our laws confer. American civilization demands that against the immigration or importation of Mongolians to these shores our gates be closed."


Churchill on Islam

The following is a passage from the book The River War, by Winston Churchill, written in 1899 after he had participated in the Sudanese Campaign.

"How dreadful are the curses which Mohammedanism lays on its votaries! Besides the fanatical frenzy, which is as dangerous in a man as hydrophobia in a dog, there is this fearful fatalistic apathy. Improvident habits, slovenly systems of agriculture, sluggish methods of commerce, and insecurity of property exist wherever the followers of the Prophet rule or live. A degraded sensualism deprives this life of its grace and refinement: the next of its dignity and sanctity. The fact that in Mohammedan law every woman must belong to some man as his absolute property -- either as a child, a wife, or a concubine -- must delay the final extinction of slavery until the faith of Islam has ceased to be a great power among men.

"Individual Moslems may show splendid qualities. Thousands become the brave and loyal soldiers of the Queen: all know how to die. But the influence of the religion paralyses the social development of those who follow it. No stronger retrograde force exists in the world. Far from being moribund, Mohammedanism is a militant and proselytizing faith. It has already spread throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every step; and were it not that Christianity is sheltered in the strong arms of science...the civilization of modern Europe might fall, as fell the civilization of ancient Rome."


Still to Come:
Fahrenheit 9/11: A Review by LTS...
LUTHER, the Movie: A Review by LTS...


Sesquicentennial, 1854-2004

2004 marks the Sesquicentennial of the Republican Party, the 150th Anniversary of the second oldest political party in the world. Senator Rod Adair is speaking around the state on the history of the Republican Party and its unique role in shaping America. The Grand Old Party was founded 150 years ago in such places as Ripon, Wisconsin and Jackson, Michigan and at least two other towns that claim it as its birthplace. It is difficult to sort out the first among firsts because the party literally sprang up, almost spontaneously. Fielding its first presidential nominee in 1856, the Grand Old Party has a record of 22 wins and 15 losses in Presidential elections. (The Democrats have a record of 20 wins and 24 losses, having gone 5-2 against other parties from 1828 through 1852. They fell below .500 in 1876 and have never reached that level again.)

The party's remarkable record includes:

1) The invention of the very concept of Civil Rights in America, 2) A commitment to an "internal development" program, including the building of roads, ports, the transcontinental railroad, the interstate highway system, land grant colleges and the settling of America through the Homestead Act; 3) The creation of the idea of conservation and the environmental movement (also invented by the Republican Party), the setting aside of national parks; 4) National policies that fostered the building of American industry, allowing its development at a critical time in our history, creating the biggest and strongest economy the world has ever known; 5) The construct of anti-trust and anti-monopoly laws to ensure a functioning economy based on private enterprise and fair trade rules and practices; 6) A not-to-be-denied determination to end slavery, and a century-long heroic struggle against the Democrat Party to end its vestiges: segregation, lynching, poll taxes, voting rights discrimination, and the intimidating power of the Ku Klux Klan; 7) Winning the battle for Women's suffrage, and many more victories in the realm of public policy.

All these accomplishments leading up to the Republican Party's role near the end of the 20th Century---by then alone in the struggle---in continuing a determined fight to win the Cold War; and into the 21st Century leading America and the world in the fight against global terrorism. If you would like Senator Adair to speak to your organization, please click here: SenatorRodAdair@dfn.com and let us know.


Subscribe to Let's Talk Sense..., Legislative Update, or New Mexico Political Journal by contacting New Mexico Demographic Research at nmdr@dfn.com

Posted by Wayne at August 29, 2004 04:20 PM