Let's Talk Sense...
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Saturday, September 13, 2003 Volume XXVIII, No. 3
Roswell, New Mexico
Readership, this date:
22,724
In this issue...
California Dreamin'
A Democrat's Dreamland, and theirs to lose
A Political Race on Cruz Control
Arnold Schwarzenegger and Being There
Does Anyone Really Want to win the Thing?
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California: The Democrats' Dreamland, and theirs to lose
Remember "California Dreamin"? Some of you assailed us
as "disloyal" three years years ago when were the lone
voice crying in the wilderness about the Bush campaign's blissful
but futile efforts in California. The news was filled with Bush
media events in the Golden State and polls showing "Bush closing
the gap" and "within striking distance." Here's what
LTS... said September 30, 2000:
"Gore will win California by a solid margin approaching a million
votes."
Bush-Cheney continued to pour big bucks into California. Five weeks
later, Gore won it by just under 1.3 million. (We had projected
Nader and minor candidates to be stronger than they were. Their
weakness pushed Gore's margin higher than our models indicated.
Minor party candidacies are very difficult to model.)
Using turnout models with formulas developed over three decades,
together with a rolling 20-year average of voting patterns, we were
not merely "guessing" when we likened Bush's expenditures
there to The Money Pit. He just wasn't going to make it happen.
The harm of course was that resources poured into California could
have made the difference in excruciatingly close losses Bush suffered
in New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oregon, could have put Florida
out of reach, and perhaps---if approached scientifically---even
allowed Bush to take Pennsylvania. Observing that these things were
not happening led LTS... to the conclusion that the election---though
widely predicted to be a reasonably comfortable 4-point win for
Bush---was going to be gut-wrenchingly close.**
Little has changed demographically in California. There is no psephological
evidence that Republicans are approaching some breakthrough, or
that the President, under anything approaching normal conditions,
has any better chance there next year than he did in 2000.
The fact that the prospect of a Republican winning the governorship
of California via Recall on October 7 is all the buzz now is nothing
more than a monumental testament to the Democrats' collective incompetence.
Nothing else could bring such a potential debacle (for California
Democrats) this close to reality.
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Cruz Control: The Democrats' Race to Lose
Anyone who understands all the above must immediately grasp the
fact that the Democrats are far from out of it in the Recall. On
paper at least, they have two very strong chances.
First, though we may sound crazy given all the TV noise, it is hard
to believe that the Recall question itself is a decided issue. Gray
Davis: 1) enjoys a powerful Democrat and liberal advantage in the
makeup of the the California electorate (the voters, at heart, are
remarkably susceptible to an appeal on his behalf that makes the
recall question one of conservatives v. "progressives");
2) has access to tremendous talent from the political consulting
world because he has all the money he needs. (With the kind of resources
he has, if we could not concoct a credible rationale as to why he
should continue in office and parlay it into a competitive campaign
on the issue of whether Davis should be recalled, we would hang
our heads in shame.)
Don't misunderstand. We believe Davis's record is terrible and he
should be recalled, but given the close divisions in American politics
and the difficulty the electorate has sorting it all out, almost
any question can be made highly competitive.
Second, let's say that the Davis camp is too incompetent to avoid
recall, what then? It is still an overwhelmingly Democrat state.
Hello! Why on earth is all of the TV and newspaper hype about the
Republicans practically having it in the bag? It is hard for us
to believe that professionals in California believe that at this
stage.
Third, not only is there a vastly greater pool of Democrat votes
to be mined in California, the Democrats only have one candidate.
As we start this issue the Republicans have at least four, Schwarzenegger,
Bill Simon, Tom McClintock, Peter Ueberroth. (Now as we go to press
with this issue, Bill Simon has in fact dropped out. Still, the
Republicans are vastly more divided than the Democrats---who have
a big majority to start with. NOTE: this issue was drafted Aug 24,
but very little has changed except Ueberroth has now dropped out
too. Illness has kept us from publishing till now. Still, a race
with only Schwarzennegger and McClintock is still problematic for
Republicans.)
Sure Cruz Bustamante is a cypher and must be kept sufficiently under
wraps to pull it off. But how many instances can we point to where
handlers have achieved just that? Plenty.
Our favorite Cruz Bustamante moment:
"On February 9, 2001, during a Black History Month speech before
400 members of the Coalition of Black Trade Unionists, Bustamante
casually referred to an African-American labor organization as the
“Nigger” labor organization, using “N” word and continuing obliviously
with his speech for another 10 minutes while up to 100 outraged
listeners rose and left the room."
Obviously, this is not our favorite moment because of the racial
slur. Readers know that we are 1854 Republicans, dedicated to fighting
racism and bigotry and exposing Democrat bigotry that the media
will never address. Rather, this is yet another entry in the crowded
field of Democrat hypocrisy on race, bigotry and anti-Semitism.
We talk about it because it makes our case yet again.
Anti-Semitism, by the way, is the 800-pound gorilla in the Democrat
living room. Everyone, especially the media, continue to tiptoe
around it, pretending it isn't there. Yet it is the obvious participant
and unwanted houseguest that no one wants to talk about and everyone
hopes will leave if they just somehow don't talk about it. But it
isn't going to leave their house. Some Democrat with brains and
guts is going to have
to address it eventually. We will have more on this ugly matter
later.
Bustamante's membership in MeCha (Movimiento Estudiantíl
de Chicano de Aztlan), and its association with the virulently anti-Semitic
La Voz de Aztlan, are bombshells waiting to be exploded. Can the
media handle it? Probably not. Thus the opportunity Bustamante has.
A fully clean Democrat, with no baggage and an ounce of articulateness,
would be walking away with this thing. The only remotely "positive"
thing that might come from a Bustamante victory is the awakening
that might really take place among American Jews as they fully begin
to understand the grotesque anti-Semitism rotting away the foundation
of the Democrat Party. (For a rogues' gallery of anti-Semitic pronouncements
by Bustamante's clubs, see the appendix at the bottom, below the
Let's Talk Sense... masthead.)
Bustamante is clearly oblivious to his own phoniness. And, unfortunately,
he is very likely a walking metaphor for the tension that exists
between professional blacks and professional Hispanics who trade
in the professional victim business. The growing rivalry over the
quest for top victim status and the benefits that come with that
perch has led to an uneasy co-existence between two critical Democrat
coalition members.
In any case, can you imagine what would happen if some Republican
said, "Uh, the Coalition of Black Trade Unionists is the nigger
labor organization?" That's what the Cruzer blurted out over
two years ago. Whoa. Mind-boggling. Trent Lott wishes Strom Thurmond
a happy birthday---admittedly clumsily and rather thoughtlessly---and
everybody faints dead away. But, Senator Robert Byrd and Cruz Bustamante
toss "nigger" around like a throwaway line and nobody
says jack. Double standard.
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Being There: Arnold Schwarzenegger as Chauncey Gardiner
In 1979 Peter Sellers made his last movie, Being There. It was a
satire about a slow-witted innocent who had spent his entire life
in seclusion working as a gardener and watching TV. It is these
two activities that have shaped his entire view---everything he
knows---about the rest of the world. The New York Times said:
"Being There explains, among other things, how illiteracy,
ignorance and a sweet attitude can lead to riches, fame and a glamorous
social career."
Roger Ebert wrote:
"This is not a movie about what could happen, it's about what
is happening---things like the blind acceptance of celebrity, a
general disinterest in the truth and the wild lengths people will
go to in order to
justify themselves...when Chauncey Gardiner (Sellers) stumbles into
Washington's political and social upper crust, his simple truisms
from the garden are taken as audaciously simple metaphors. This
guy's a Thoreau! In no time at all, he's the closest confidant of
a dying billionaire industrialist (Melvyn Douglas)---and the industrialist
is the closest confidant of the President of the United States."
Fast forward to 2003:
A well-dressed middle-aged man steps in front of microphones and
answers questions about his views on a range of political issues.
His answers are fairly ambiguous, even impenetrable in some cases.
But the tone is positive, his manners are friendly and he reflects
a certain optimism, if not simplicity, in each and every response.
(To be completely accurate, some news organizations used English
subtitles to clarify much of his remarks. This is something rarely
used to help an American political candidate be understood in the
United States.)
The reaction is varied. Those who are inclined to dislike him still
do. Those who are warily suspicious still are. But among those merely
observing with wide-eyed wonder, there is, well, wide-eyed wonder.
Among this subset the reaction, though still varied, is almost universally
ecstatic. The liberals are convinced their man is an open-minded
liberal, who is getting an opportunity to take the Republican Party
in a new direction. The moderates see in him the fiscal conservative
and social liberal that embodies their own idealized view of themselves.
In short, he's a godsend to the Republican Party. For the conservatives,
the interview is transforming---the candidate morphed right in front
of their eyes, and they are wilting with near adolescent infatuation.
For some he's the second coming of Ludwig Von Mises, Friedrick Hayek
and Milton Friedman all rolled into one. Though there is precious
little commentary on the social side, the overall reaction included
these analyses:
"Said all the right things." "Hit just the right
notes." "Set just the right tone." "Knocked
it out of the park." "Handled the press skillfully."
"Boffo performance." "Homerun." "Something
there to reassure everyone." "Sufficiently conservative."
Even the most conservative commentators fell all over themselves
to be first in line to pronounce the man "one of us."
Remarkable, truly remarkable. All in all it says much more about
us than it does about Arnold. It is 2003 and the cult of celebrity
clearly has yet to reach its zenith. There will be many more casualties
in its wake before it crests, but one of them may well be political
judgment.
One final note. We don't mean to be dissing Arnold. We are not saying
he is Chauncey Gardiner. In fact, the best we can tell Arnold is
reasonably bright, articulate, and probably as well qualified to
be governor of California as anyone in the race. We are merely pointing
out that he does not have to go through any real vetting, or provide
any actual proof of intellectual capacity as a condition for gaining
the approval of a remarkably varied and frankly very intelligent
group of judges and pundits.
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N O T I C E
Do you have an opinion on Constitutional Amendment 2, the Raid on
the Permanent Fund? If you do, visit www.rodadair.com and participate
in the interactive poll on Rod's web site. Also check other issues
of Let's Talk Sense... and Legislative Update.
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Does Anyone Really Want to win the Thing?
Sometimes in the waning moments of a March Madness matchup, fifteen-foot
jumpshots clang off the rim and backboard at both ends of the court
for eight consecutive possessions. The score remains tied and unchanged
for what seems like eternity, despite what appears to be frantic,
all-out efforts on both sides. Inevitably, at some point, the color
commentator intones: "Does anybody want to win this thing?"
The same question has to be raised about the California Recall---for
a couple of reasons. First of course will be the staggering incompetence
and risible records, personal and political, on both sides. Second
though, will be the practical: Just exactly what do you get when
you do win? Well for one, you get to have Gray Davis's job.
Is it really good, in the overall scheme of things, for a Republican
to take on the task of trying to overcome the fiscal disaster that
is California? Does it really present the prospect of a societal
good?
Remember, there is no discernible evidence of the concept of shame
in California. There is none in their politicians and certainly
none in their media. The chutzpah of people like Gray Davis is nothing
short of breathtaking. This is a guy who, right now, openly blames
the Republicans in the state assembly and the state senate for the
state's budgetary woes. That is to say, he has been governor for
almost five years and his party has been, and continues to be, in
complete control of state government, including overwhelming majorities
in both houses of the legislature. Yet the state's problems are
the fault of the hapless and largely powerless Republicans in the
legislature.
What this tells us is that California Democrats will say anything---much
in the Clinton tradition. And this will go largely unchallenged,
by a lazy media, both in California as well as nationwide.
Now some believe that a Republican win (if either Schwarzenegger
or McClintock were able to pull it off) would be "bad"
because it is anticipated that neither of them would be able to
accomplish much before November 2004. They reason that the problems
of California would then be associated with a Republican governor,
no matter how briefly he would have served. And, the thinking goes,
this would hurt George W. Bush in his efforts to win California's
55 electoral votes next fall.
Frankly, we don't worry about it from that point of view. We do
not believe George W. Bush has any chance---again, under reasonably
normal conditions---to come anywhere close to carrying California
next year. Instead, we are tempted to hope for the quasi-Calvinistic
notion that California, and California's tormentors (the Democrat
autocracy) should suffer for their sins. Together. They deserve
it. There is good reason for it.
One goal conservatives should have for California is realignment.
Realignment is the change of attitude, and voting behavior, by a
majority of an electorate toward its dominant political party. Texas
realigned between 1982 and 1994. North Carolina did so as well,
over roughly the same time frame, though somewhat less thoroughly.
Georgia is in the final stages of doing the same thing right now.
A key element of the realignment process is the electorate being
able to experience dramatic and drastic consequences of the dominant
party's performance. America itself realigned in 1828, 1860, 1896
and 1932. We also realigned, in increments, between 1980 and 1994.
Another way to explain the process is that a significant percentage
of the voters change their view of one of the political parties,
and begin believing that a party they previously supported is either
incompetent, unable to address the problems at hand, or simply philosophically
unsuited to the conditions of the times.
That could happen in California, given time and the right circumstances.
But the injection of a Republican into the mix clouds that experience.
It confuses the issue. It makes the full consequences of the Democrats'
collective failure more difficult to apprehend. They and their apologists
would immediately begin blaming the Republican for 1) the $37 Billion
deficit to start with, and 2) the draconian measures needed to wipe
it out.
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** What's the harm you say? Bush still won. Who cares? The answer is of course that the circumstances of November/December 2000 left a number of myths in their wake. Bush has been delegitimized as an unelected President in the eyes of many. Never mind that the historical facts, legal and psephological, do not in any way support the myth. It is nonetheless the rallying cry of millions on the Left, one that gives them at least some entree into the great muddled middle that will be decisive in 2004. It also has been the equivalent of the Banzai scream of the intellectual hoodlums of the Left Wing, allowing them to act like Soccer hooligans merely chanting Florida-driven slogans rather than engage in policy discussion. A 324-214 in the Electoral College would have put a cork in much of the guff Bush has received and---given the same circumstances, 9-11 et.al.---would have made a second term a much simpler proposition.
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(c) Copyright, 2003. All Rights Reserved by New Mexico Demographic
Research.
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Appendix.
Anti-Semitic statements issued by Cruz Bustamante's clubs and organizations:
(All quotes by "La Voz de Aztlan," unless otherwise indicated.)
"All the current troubles in the world are all because of that
shitty little country Israel."
"Zionism is a disgrace to the human race."
"[Rutgers University] has taken a shameful overt political
stand in favor of Israeli Apartheid." (NOTE: According to La
Voz de Aztlan, Israel is a state which enforces "apartheid.")
"The 'Kosher Nostra Scam' is costing the American consumer
millions of dollars per year by paying extra for what actually amounts
to a hidden "Jewish Tax" on food products."
"La Voz de Aztlan understands and greatly sympathizes with Mel Gibson and his present predicament. Two Jewish organizations that have vehemently attack him, the ADL of B'nai B'rith and the Simon Wiesenthal Center have also attacked us. Both organizations have written extensively against us simply because we are Christians and because we dare to write the truth in articles such as this one...We are convinced that these hypocritical and self-righteous Zionists are of the same mold as those Jewish Pharisees responsible for the cruel crucifixion of Our Lord Jesus Christ."
"While America continues her massive annual handouts to the
parasite state of Israel, many American citizens are denied many
of their basic needs."
"One of the biggest injustices of the twentieth century --
the 55th anniversary of the establishment of the State of "Israel"
-- is being celebrated in a manner bordering on the scandalous."
"The Zionist owned media in the United States has a lot of
power to influence the federal government. They want to be the only
ones with the ability to disseminate information which includes
opinions about important issues affecting the world such as the
crisis in the Middle East."
"We can not sit back and allow the Zionists to gradually erode
our sacred rights... Presently most of the members of the U.S. Congress
are in the pockets of extremely wealthy and powerful Zionist business
interests. We must turn the tide and expose these Zionist lackeys
before all Americans are enslaved..."
"George W. Bush has plans to appoint General Jay Garner, a
well known lackey of the Jewish Institute for National Security
Affairs (JINSA), to govern post-war Iraq."
Here's a good example of Cruz Bustamante's daily thinking exercises:
by
Hector Carreon
La Voz de Aztlan
Los Angeles, Alta California
September 8, 2003
(ACN) Ever since the Mexican army quelled a rebellion by a group
of ungrateful Anglo immigrants in its
northern state of Tejas at the Alamo in 1836, Anglos have utilized
the slogan "Remember the Alamo" as coded words to discriminate
and often "lynch" Americans of Mexican descent. This type
of ethnic hatred, experienced most acutely by Los Tejanos, will
surely worsen now that the Zionist Michael Eisner will release its
historically inaccurate and one sided new film "The Alamo"
around December of this year...I am convinced that the Jews practice
not only anti-Christianism, but anti-Mexicanism as well!