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Saturday, October 14, 2000 Volume XXV, No. 35
Roswell, New Mexico
In this issue:
Few Records Broken in 2000
Ronald Reagan will still be "The King"
Presidential Vote-Getting Prowess
With our projection of just over 48,000,000 votes going to the winner
in the 2000 Presidential Election, we are saying it will be at least
2004 before Ronald Reagan's record 54,281,858 votes, set against
Mondale in 1984, will be broken by a presidential candidate---if
then.
While an admittedly obscure factoid, it is vaguely interesting to
note that no presidential vote-getting record has ever lasted 20
years.
With the steady growth in population throughout our nation's history
and the simultaneous growth in the electorate, it has been mathematically
logical to expect that each new presidential election would present
opportunities for new records to be set in vote-getting.
This has not always occurred of course, due to the relative disparity
of conditions and turnout often observed from one presidential cycle
to the next.
A lopsided contest can be followed by a tightly contested race in
which the winner has no chance of reaching the level of the last
president who won by an overwhelming margin.
Such was the case with Franklin D. Roosevelt's win over Alfred Landon
in 1936. Roosevelt got nearly 28 million votes that year, but faced
tougher races himself over the next two elections, garnering "only"
27.2 and 25.6 million votes respectively. He was followed by Truman
who received 24.1 million votes in 1948. It took Dwight Eisenhower's
total of just under 34 million to finally break the FDR mark of
16 years earlier.
Ike broke his own mark in 1956, and LBJ shattered it in 1964 with
43.1 million against Goldwater. Eight years later Nixon took 47.2
against McGovern. That record would stand for 12 years until Reagan
set the current standard against Mondale in 1984.
Neither Bush nor Gore will come any closer than about 6 million
votes to the Reagan mark. Thus, Reagan will have held the record
for 20 years by the time of the next election---the longest streak
in American presidential history.
State-by-State
Oddly enough, some of the statewide records are held by presidential
candidates who ran decades ago.
The overall record in Iowa, for example, was set by Eisenhower in
1952. LBJ holds the Iowa Democrat record---and that was 36 years
ago.
Why? Well in Iowa's case its population has stagnated. Population
actually fell there between 1970 and 1990---falling sharply during
the 80s. There may be 150,000 or so more people than they had 50
years ago, but turnout is at a lower percentage. Also, their Democrat
and Republican camps have dug in, solidified, and have become less
volatile in the potential swing from cycle to cycle.
Neither Bush nor Gore will come anywhere close to breaking their
respective party records in Iowa in 2000. Similar observations can
be made in a number of states.
The East
We see no state in which a new record will be set, either overall
or for one of the parties.
Reagan holds four state records in the East. LBJ still holds the
all-time records in Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode
Island and West Virginia. Bush holds the record in New Hampshire.
Clinton is the all-time winner in only Maryland and Vermont.
The South
Two new statewide records will likely be set in the South. Bush
will likely shatter the previous Georgia record and just barely
set a new mark in North Carolina. Oddly enough, Al Gore has a great
chance of setting new Democrat highs everywhere except Mississippi,
Arkansas and Louisiana----even though we see him losing in every
single state in the region.
Reagan holds the all-time records in 10 of the 11 states. Bush set
the Georgia record in 1988.
The West
George W. has a great opportunity to break four all-time records
in the West: Alaska, Texas, Arizona and Nevada. Gore will set new
Democrat highs in Oklahoma, Montana, Nevada, Colorado, Utah, Arizona
and Idaho, we think---again while losing ALL of them.
Remarkably, the oldest records in the country will still be safe.
Franklin D. Roosevelt, if you can believe it, holds the records
for most votes by any Democrat in North Dakota, South Dakota and
Nebraska. Gore will not come close to those records in any of those
three states----68 years and counting. FDR's 64-year old record
in Kansas should also stand the test of time yet again.
Reagan currently holds the records in 12 of the 15 states in the
region. Bush set the high marks in Arizona and Nevada, while the
1952 Eisenhower race still holds the all-time record in South Dakota.
The Pacific
Look for Gore to break Ronald Reagan's all-time records in California
and Oregon, but fall short of new highs in Washington and barely
miss in Hawaii.
Bush will not set any new Republican records.
Clinton set the current marks in Washington and Hawaii.
The Midwest
No new records for Bush. Gore could barely pass the Clinton record
established in Minnesota and the Dukakis mark in Wisconsin.
Reagan holds the records in Wisconsin, Ohio, Missouri, and Michigan,
Johnson is still the top vote-getter in Illinois. Nixon is the all-time
winner in Indiana. Eisenhower holds the Iowa mark.